NHL player projections, probabilities and fair odds
Hockey Projections shows what to expect from every skater in every upcoming NHL game: projected goals, assists and points, the chance of going over or under a line, and the matching fair odds. Pick a game, choose a team, and the tables update with the latest lineups and expected goals.
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How the projections are calculated
Every projection starts with the game itself. Each team gets an expected goals (xG) figure for the game, and that goal total is shared out between the players in the lineup. The share each player gets comes from three things:
- Scoring and assist rates – the model blends a player's rates this season with last season and the league average, so a small sample does not swing the numbers too far.
- Ice time – a player's share of even-strength and power-play time in the expected lineup.
- Power play and penalties – adjustments for power-play role and for how often the opponent takes penalties.
The expected values are then turned into probabilities with a Poisson-based model, which gives the chance of at least one goal, assist or point (over 0.5), at least two (over 1.5), and the matching under lines.
How to read the numbers
- Expected values are the average number of goals, assists or points the model projects for a player.
- Probabilities are the model's chance that the player reaches a line, such as 1+ points.
- Fair odds are the decimal odds that match that probability exactly, with no bookmaker margin. A 25% chance equals fair odds of 4.00.
- Confidence shows how much data sits behind a projection. Players with few games played have lower confidence.
Customize the expected goals
If you disagree with a game's expected goals, open the Customize xG tab and change either team's number. The player projections and the game odds are recalculated straight away, so you can test your own view of a matchup.
Frequently asked questions
What is xG (expected goals) in hockey?
Expected goals is the number of goals a team is projected to score in a game. It is the starting point for every player projection on this site.
What are fair odds?
Fair odds are the decimal odds that exactly match a modelled probability. If a bookmaker offers odds above the fair odds, the price is higher than the model thinks it should be.
How often are the projections updated?
The page refreshes game data automatically while it is open, so expected goals, lineups and odds follow the latest information. The time of the last update is shown above the tables.
Which games are covered?
All upcoming NHL games that have lineup and expected goals data. Use the game strip at the top to switch games, or open Top 25 for the highest-rated projections of the day.
Is this betting advice?
No. The figures are statistical estimates with no guarantee of any result. Use them as information only.